Twins hope to continue offensive onslaught in Kansas City

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their offense producing runs at an incredible rate, the Minnesota Twins set their sights on a fifth straight victory as well as a three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals when the American League Central foes square off this afternoon at Kauffman Stadium.

After overwhelming the Royals by a 19-1 count in Monday's opener of this set, the Twins continued their recent scoring binge in another lopsided win last night. Minnesota pounded out 19 hits in its 11-2 rout of the Royals, with Danny Valencia going 4-for-5 with three RBI to lead the charge.

Joe Mauer, coming off a 5-for-5, seven-RBI performance in Monday's game, doubled twice and knocked in a pair of runs to help the Twins improve to 9-3 since the All-Star break. Michael Cuddyer and J.J. Hardy each contributed three hits and two RBI to Tuesday's triumph.

The Twins entered this series off a 10-4 win at Baltimore on Sunday, with yesterday's result marking the first team the club has scored in double digits three straight times since June 11-13, 1967.

"I think [the Twins are] the best hitting team in the American League," said Royals pitcher Bruce Chen after Tuesday's test. "They're good. I know they have some guys hurt, but they're still pretty good. I felt like I made good pitches."

Chen (5-5) allowed the first six Minnesota runs and a total of 11 hits over the first 5 1/3 innings to take the loss. His counterpart, Carl Pavano, was considerably better, as the resurgent right-hander limited the Royals to one run in five innings of work in posting his eighth straight winning decision.

Pavano is now 13-6 on the season, tied with the New York Yankees' CC Sabathia and Tampa Bay's David Price for the most wins in the AL.

Valencia has been on quite a roll as well lately. The rookie infielder had four hits, including a grand slam, in Monday's contest and has gone 8-for-9 with seven RBI so far in the series.

"It's been a great time for me," he said. "It's been a great time for the team. We've been winning and you couldn't ask for anything more.

Minnesota remained one game behind the Chicago White Sox, who defeated Seattle on Tuesday, in the race for first place in the AL Central with last night's verdict.

The Twins go for the sweep today behind Brian Duensing, who showed in his first 2010 start he can be as effective in that role as he's been for the team in relief this season.

In his first outing since being inserted into the Minnesota rotation in place of a struggling Nick Blackburn, Duensing held Baltimore to a run on four hits over five solid innings this past Friday. He left the game with a 2-1 lead, but wound up with a no-decision when the Orioles scored against the Twins' bullpen later on.

Prior to that performance, Duensing compiled a 3-1 record with a sensational 1.67 earned run average in 39 relief appearances for the year. The left-hander also did well when called upon to start in 2009, going 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA in nine such assignments, and beat the Royals by tossing five innings of two-run ball at Kauffman Stadium last August.

In eight overall encounters with Kansas City, Duensing is 2-0 with a 4.85 ERA.

The Royals hand the ball to Brian Bannister today and hope the inconsistent right-hander can continue his usual success in day games. The 29-year-old is 4-1 with a very solid 3.05 ERA in seven afternoon starts this season, compared to a 2-6 mark and 7.10 ERA at night, and sports an excellent 21-9 overall record in the day over the course of his career.

Bannister enters this afternoon's tilt in a slump, however, having lost in three consecutive starts and producing a subpar 0-4 record and 7.07 ERA over his last five mound trips. He's permitted four runs or more in each of those games.

The former University of Southern California standout did best the Twins at Kauffman Stadium on April 25 -- a game which took place in the day -- by yielding two runs over 6 1/3 innings. Lifetime against Minnesota, Bannister is 4-4 with a 4.09 ERA over 11 starts.

Kansas City has now lost five of its last six games and continues to have trouble against the Twins. Minnesota is 8-3 against the Royals this year and has taken 16 of the last 20 overall meetings between the teams. The Twins are also 18-5 at Kauffman Stadium since the start of the 2008 season.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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