New man in Charge: San Diego turns to Norv

Football Betting Lines

02/19/2007 - San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Chargers are reportedly set to name Norv Turner as their new head coach.

The San Diego Union-Tribune reported Monday that Turner will replace Marty Schottenheimer, who was fired just one week ago despite a 14-2 season.

Turner was the offensive coordinator with the San Francisco 49ers this past season and will become a head coach for the third time in his career. He spent seven seasons with Washington and two with Oakland, and owns a record of just 58-82-1 with a playoff mark of 1-1.

Schottenheimer's poor playoff record and his strained relationship with Chargers general manager A.J. Smith were among the factors in last week's dismissal.

Turner has been with the San Diego organization before, spending the 2001 campaign as the offensive coordinator under Mike Riley following his tenure as head coach of the Redskins.

Superstar running back LaDainian Tomlinson was a rookie when Turner was with the Chargers. Under Turner, the San Diego offense improved to the 11th-best unit after having finished 28th the season before. Most of that offensive philosophy is still in place.

Turner also spent time as offensive coordinator with the Dallas Cowboys during their Super Bowl years in the early 1990s and with the Miami Dolphins earlier this decade. His track record as a head coach, however, is not as good.

The Redskins gave Turner his first head coaching shot in 1994 and he led the club to an NFC East title in 1999, but was fired just 13 games into the 2000 season. He finished with a record of 49-59-1 in the regular season.

In two years with the dismal Raiders, Turner guided the club to a mark of just 9-23.

The Chargers interviewed six candidates to replace Schottenheimer, including Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Ron Rivera, 49ers assistant Mike Singletary, Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan, New Orleans defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs and Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer.

Turner will take over a team many believe is a strong Super Bowl contender for 2007. The Chargers won the AFC West last year and were the top seed in the conference playoffs, but lost to the New England Patriots in the divisional round.

In addition to Schottenheimer's departure, the Chargers also lost both coordinators from last season. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron left to take the head coaching vacancy with the Miami Dolphins, while defensive coordinator Wade Phillips was named the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys.

Phillips, ironically, beat out Turner for the Cowboys position.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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