David Beckham, more PR than superstar

Soccer Betting Lines

01/16/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Soccer made the biggest transaction in its 11-year history this past Thursday when the Los Angeles Galaxy signed Real Madrid midfielder David Beckham to a five-year contract that could potentially pay the British icon a whopping $250 million.

The move was met with equal parts shock and awe, and sent ripples throughout the soccer universe, something Major League Soccer has never accomplished before. After all, the MLS has always been a league made up of college kids and Latin American players, never world-renowned European talent.

The belief in many MLS circles, including league commissioner Don Garber, is that Beckham's presence serves to legitimize the league as something more than the equivalent of the Double-A Southern League in baseball.

Said Garber: "David Beckham is a global sports icon who will transcend the sport of soccer in America. His decision to continue his storied career in Major League Soccer is testament to the fact that America is rapidly becoming a true 'Soccer Nation' with Major League Soccer at the core."

Garber's vision of America as a true 'Soccer Nation' lasted all of 24 hours.

While Beckham's mug was plastered all over newspapers and television screens across the country on Friday, most of the talk surrounded the incredible sum of cash that Beckham would receive for his role as defibrillator of the MLS.

Then, just one day later, that "other" football league's playoffs cast aside Major League Soccer and its new savior, and returned it to its role as a niche sport once again.

The MLS went to great lengths in order to sign Beckham, including a rule change that allows each team one roster spot for a player whose salary will not count against the nearly $2 million salary cap.

The reason?

Beckham is the most recognizable soccer player on the planet, one of the few footballers in the world with crossover appeal. The attention that he garners, however, is not for his playing ability on the pitch, but for his lifestyle off of it.

A number of factors go into making the empire that is David Beckham. First and foremost is his 1999 marriage to Victoria Adams, a.k.a. pop superstar Posh Spice.

By tying the knot with this British bombshell, Beckham instantly became a tabloid regular, whose shopping trips and where he vacationed in the offseason became more important than how many goals he scored.

It also helps that Beckham has been a member of two of the world's most popular teams in the past 20 years, Manchester United and Real Madrid. Both clubs have endorsement deals that dwarf those of the New York Yankees and any other successful American sports franchise. Beckham jerseys are worn by children from South Africa to South Korea.

Despite the fact that he has hardly been the best player on his own team, he has always been the most popular. Players like Gary Neville, Roy Keane and Ryan Giggs served as the foundation for the Manchester United house, while Beckham was the shiny sports car parked in the driveway, certainly not a necessity, but nice to look at.

He is a one-dimensional player who cannot even crack his current club's starting lineup. While he has few peers when it comes to free kicks, he has a tendency to disappear for long stretches of time during games, and is certainly not an ideal two-way midfielder.

Beckham will be the best player on the field in any MLS contest he takes part in. But, in comparison to the English, Spanish and other top leagues in Europe, it is more a reflection of the talent level in the MLS than Beckham's skill level.

So what exactly is the MLS getting in David Beckham?

They are getting a player who will sell a large number of jerseys and generate a spike in ticket sales. Just hours after news of Beckham's signing with the LA Galaxy, the club's season ticket requests jumped by over 1,000.

Even the expansion Toronto FC club reported large increases in ticket sales immediately after the news from fans hoping to catch a glimpse of the latest British invasion.

Beckham went to great lengths to let everyone know that his decision to come to the MLS was not financially motivated, but was about the challenge of spreading soccer to a larger audience in the United States.

Just exactly how Beckham plans to do this will be the interesting part.

If he thinks that a few gravity-defying free kicks will spark a generation to trade in their high-tops for a pair of soccer boots, he is in for a rude awakening.

Soccer will always have a hardcore fan base in the United States, but at the end of the day, it is still the same game. The average American sports fan just doesn't get it, there is not enough scoring and not enough contact to keep them interested.

Ticket sales will jump, merchandise will be purchased at an increased rate, giving the illusion that soccer is being embraced in the United States.

Don't be fooled.

David Beckham is a curiosity, which will attract a few more people to watch. The novelty will wear off in a year or two, and in the end, soccer will be left in pretty much the same place that Beckham found it, a niche sport that enjoyed a brief spike in interest for a few years.

Beckham is more PR than superstar, but don't look for the MLS to complain.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.