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07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After coming through with a much-needed victory on Wednesday, the Oakland Athletics will try to gain further ground on the American League West-leading Texas Rangers when the divisional rivals wrap up a three-game series tonight at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
The Athletics lost 3-1 to Texas in a 10-inning thriller on Tuesday, but were able to avenge that defeat with a dominant performance from Trevor Cahill last night. The All-Star hurler delivered eight shutout innings and Kurt Suzuki knocked in a pair of runs as Oakland evened this key set with a 3-1 triumph.
Cahill (10-4) limited a potent Rangers offense to a mere two hits and walked three in outdueling Texas starter Colby Lewis, who gave up just one run and five hits while registering eight strikeouts over his seven innings of work.
"He was outstanding," A's manager Bob Geren said of Cahill. "When you think about the environment he was pitching in, the weather, the team, it was about as good as you can do."
Lewis held his own as well until the sixth inning, when Suzuki snapped a scoreless tie by hitting his team-leading 12th homer of the year. The Oakland catcher later added an RBI single during a two-run eighth that gave his club a 3-0 advantage.
"[Lewis] left one pitch up to Suzuki, and when you make a mistake to that kid he usually doesn't miss," Rangers manager Ron Washington remarked.
Nelson Cruz, who had the game-winning homer in the 10th inning of Tuesday's opener, had one of Texas' two hits of Cahill to extend his hitting streak to 16 games. The standout outfielder is batting .403 (27-for-67) with three homers and 16 RBI during his career-best tear.
Oakland now has won 10 of its last 13 contests, but still trails the front- running Rangers by 7 1/2 games in the AL West standings. Texas had won four of five prior to Wednesday's setback.
The Rangers will attempt to bounce back behind C.J. Wilson, who's been as good as any pitcher on a Texas staff that also contains former AL Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee over the past few weeks. The converted closer comes in having won six of his last eight decisions and has yielded two runs or less seven times in a nine-start span dating back to June 9, producing an excellent 2.33 earned run average over that stretch.
Wilson has been especially strong since the All-Star break. After permitting just one run and three hits and racking up a career-best 10 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings to defeat Boston on July 18, the left-hander fired eight shutout innings to lead Texas to a 1-0 victory over rival Anaheim this past Friday in his second start of the second half.
The 29-year-old is also an impressive 7-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 12 outings at hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark for the year, and allowed one run in a seven- inning no-decision against the A's in Arlington back in May. Wilson had faced Oakland 30 times in relief prior to that start and went 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA and five saves in those games.
The Athletics counter with a pitcher who's on quite a roll of his own in Vin Mazzaro. The young right-hander enters the finale with a 4-0 record and an outstanding 2.12 ERA over his past five assignments and has lasted at least six innings in each of his six most recent starts.
Most notably, most of Mazzaro's success has come on the road, where he's compiled a 4-1 mark along with a 3.13 ERA in seven games (five starts). The second-year major-leaguer has emerged triumphant in three straight away starts, including a July 17 clash at Kansas City in which he surrendered one run in a career-best 7 2/3 innings of work.
Mazzaro followed up by holding AL Central-leading Chicago to two runs and three hits in a sharp six-inning stint on Saturday, which ran his season record to 6-2.
The 23-year-old did not fare well in a meeting with the Rangers on May 4, however, with Mazzaro reached for four runs and issuing four walks before exiting after three innings.
These divisional foes have split eight meetings thus far in 2010, with the Rangers having prevailed in three of the five matchups held in Arlington.
<< White Sox put home streak on line in finale with Mariners
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox try for their first 11-game home
winning streak in 21 years this evening, when they attempt to complete a four-
game sweep of the Seattle Mariners at U.S. Cellular Field.
Chicago won for the 17th time
<< Phils shoot for eighth straight win, sweep of D-Backs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Philadelphia Phillies wait for Roy Oswalt to
approve a trade to them, they will shoot for a three-game sweep of the Arizona
Diamondbacks tonight at Citizens Bank Park.
According to multiple reports, the Phillies
<< Padres send out Latos in hopes of taking set from Dodgers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mat Latos attempts to win his seventh straight decision
this evening, when the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers close out a
three-game series at Petco Park.
Latos, who had recently been sidelined with a strained le
<< Indiana State seeking OC after Walters' departure
Terre Haute, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Indiana State is conducting a fast search
to replace its offensive coordinator after Troy Walters resigned earlier this
week to accept the position of wide receivers coach at Texas A&M.
In his only seas
Aberdeen signs midfielder Hartley >>
Aberdeen, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aberdeen signed Scotland midfielder Paul
Hartley on Thursday.
Hartley, who has played 25 times for Scotland, was named Aberdeen's captain.
He last played for Bristol City, and played at Celtic from 200
Southern Illinois adds six players, two from FBS >>
Carbondale, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Southern Illinois football team has added
six players to its 2010 roster.
Highlighting the group are Football Bowl Subdivision transfers Carl Harris, a
wide receiver from Rutgers, and Myron Walker, a nos
Nationals decide to put Strasburg on DL >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Nationals have decided to
put rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg on the 15-day disabled list with stiffness
in his shoulder.
Strasburg is expected to rest for the next 3-to-4 days and have
A sad, tragic end in Memphis >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A body riddled with bullets was found in
Southeast Memphis Wednesday afternoon in a thickly wooded area near FedEx's
world headquarters.
It was just another sad ending in a city that has become notorious f
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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